The Briefing Room

• Agents, as we roll into the latest mission, it's time to assess the battlefield. October 9th gave us some juicy intel—NASDAQ is hovering just 2.1% shy of all-time highs, while the S&P 500 closed a mere 57 cents off its own record at $577.14. With this breakout, I’ve deployed Fibonacci, and guess what? It’s painting a clear target of $585. Sky’s the limit on this one, so keep those scopes trained on any movement.
• Now, to the real fun—the Fed Minutes. The last meeting delivered that highly anticipated 50 bps rate cut. Most members were on board with the half-point slash, but a few held out for a more modest 25 bp cut, wanting a “gradual path of policy normalization.” They're playing it safe, trying to assess just how restrictive policy needs to be as the economy shifts. Something worth noting: inflation got mentioned 73 times, while unemployment took the spotlight with 94 mentions. That’s a tell. If you're in the mood for some “light” reading, the full report is ready for your perusal here. We Agents love a good detail dive, don’t we?
• In international news, eyes are on China’s next move. Following a lackluster NDRC meeting, Goldman flagged a State Council press conference set for October 12th. Will the Ministry of Finance drop some major numbers? Our macro team doesn’t think so, but we’re keeping the comms open—could be something hidden beneath the surface.
• Lastly, prepare for turbulence. With the election cycle revving up and a storm of events hitting the market over the next 30 days, volatility will be our constant companion. Keep your wits sharp, agents—this mission is far from over.

Debrief: Revisiting Past Intel

Let’s revisit $PYPL, a name I highlighted back on August 18th, when I initiated a “Buy” at $68. At the time, it seemed like the market was overlooking some obvious strengths, but today, I’m up 20% on that position as it trades at $81.65 as of the 10/9/24 close. The company's steady revenue growth and increasing transaction volumes simply didn’t align with the sharp drop in its valuation following the post-COVID pullback.

One of the biggest shifts has been the recognition of PayPal’s new CEO, initially underestimated by the street. Now, he’s proving his worth by steering clear of unproductive ventures and keeping the company focused on its core strengths. And it’s paying off, as we continue to see announcements that solidify PayPal’s strategic direction.

• Amazon Partnership: PayPal is now integrated with Amazon’s “Buy with Prime,” expanding payment options for users and increasing transaction volume.
• Checkout Button Dominance: The checkout button remains the profit driver—accounting for 80% of profits without sharing cuts to ads or commissions.
• Venmo’s Global Potential: With 50-60 million users in the U.S., Venmo has tremendous untapped potential in international markets. If PayPal can expand globally, this could fuel even more growth.
• PayPal Fastlane: Their white-label payment service for e-commerce companies mirrors Stripe’s model, diversifying PayPal’s offering without straying from its core.
• Bullish Sentiment in Options: In January, $PYPL saw 127,000 open contracts at the $140 strike for 2025, well ahead of its competitors. Clearly, there’s been significant demand for exposure, even if it wasn’t widely acknowledged earlier.

As more investors catch on to PayPal’s strengths and future potential, this stock continues to offer significant opportunities. It’s a classic case of recognizing the fundamentals before the broader market catches up.